Saturday, December 26, 2009

Quotes from pioneer of the field of economics and political science in India.

Chānakya (Sanskrit: चाणक्य Cāṇakya) (c. 350–283 BCE) was an adviser and prime minister[1] to the first Maurya Emperor Chandragupta (c. 340-293 BCE), and was the chief architect of his rise to power. Kautilya and Vishnugupta, the names by which the ancient Indian political treatise called the Arthaśāstra identifies its author, are traditionally identified with Chanakya.[2] Chanakya has been considered as the pioneer of the field of economics and political science, having first written about the subject a millennium and a half before Ibn Khaldun's Muqaddimah.[3][4][5][6]. In the western world, he has been referred to as The Indian Machiavelli, although Chanakya's works predate him by about 1,800 years.[7] Chanakya was a professor at Takshashila University and was responsible for the creation of Mauryan empire, the first of its kind on the Indian subcontinent.

Quotes by Chanakya

1) "Learn from the mistakes of others... you can't live long enough to make them all yourselves!!"

2)"A person should not be too honest. Straight trees are cut first and Honest people are screwed first."

3)"Even if a snake is not poisonous, it should pretend to be venomous."

4)"The biggest guru-mantra is: Never share your secrets with anybody. It will destroy you."

5)"There is some self-interest behind every friendship. There is no friendship without self-interests. This is a bitter truth."

6)" Before you start some work, always ask yourself three questions - Why am I doing it, What the results might be and Will I be successful. Only when you think deeply and find satisfactory answers to these questions, go ahead."

7)"As soon as the fear approaches near, attack and destroy it."

8)"The world's biggest power is the youth and beauty of a woman."

9)"Once you start a working on something, don't be afraid of failure and don't abandon it. People who work sincerely are the happiest."

10)"The fragrance of flowers spreads only in the direction of the wind. But the goodness of a person spreads in all direction."

11)"God is not present in idols. Your feelings are your god. The soul is your temple."

12) "A man is great by deeds, not by birth."

13) "Never make friends with people who are above or below you in status. Such friendships will never give you any happiness."

14) "Treat your kid like a darling for the first five years. For the next five years, scold them. By the time they turn sixteen, treat them like a friend. Your grown up children are your best friends."

15) "Books are as useful to a stupid person as a mirror is useful to a blind person."

16) "Education is the best friend. An educated person is respected everywhere. Education beats the beauty and the youth."

Quotes by Chanakya - II

1) A man is born alone and dies alone; and he experiences the good and bad consequences of his karma alone; and he goes alone to hell or the Supreme abode.

2) As a single withered tree, if set aflame, causes a whole forest to burn, so does a rascal son destroy a whole family.

3) As long as your body is healthy and under control and death is distant, try to save your soul; when death is immanent what can you do?

4) Do not be very upright in your dealings for you would see by going to the forest that straight trees are cut down while crooked ones are left standing.

5) Do not reveal what you have thought upon doing, but by wise council keep it secret being determined to carry it into execution.

6) He who is overly attached to his family members experiences fear and sorrow, for the root of all grief is attachment. Thus one should discard attachment to be happy.

7) He who lives in our mind is near though he may actually be far away; but he who is not in our heart is far though he may really be nearby.

8) If one has a good disposition, what other virtue is needed? If a man has fame, what is the value of other ornamentation?

9) It is better to die than to preserve this life by incurring disgrace. The loss of life causes but a moment's grief, but disgrace brings grief every day of one's life.

10) O wise man! Give your wealth only to the worthy and never to others. The water of the sea received by the clouds is always sweet.

11) One whose knowledge is confined to books and whose wealth is in the possession of others, can use neither his knowledge nor wealth when the need for them arises.

12) Purity of speech, of the mind, of the senses, and of a compassionate heart are needed by one who desires to rise to the divine platform.

13) Test a servant while in the discharge of his duty, a relative in difficulty, a friend in adversity, and a wife in misfortune.

14) The earth is supported by the power of truth; it is the power of truth that makes the sun shine and the winds blow; indeed all things rest upon truth.

15) The happiness and peace attained by those satisfied by the nectar of spiritual tranquillity is not attained by greedy persons restlessly moving here and there.

16) The life of an uneducated man is as useless as the tail of a dog which neither covers its rear end, nor protects it from the bites of insects.

17) The one excellent thing that can be learned from a lion is that whatever a man intends doing should be done by him with a whole-hearted and strenuous effort.

18) The serpent, the king, the tiger, the stinging wasp, the small child, the dog owned by other people, and the fool: these seven ought not to be awakened from sleep.

19) The wise man should restrain his senses like the crane and accomplish his purpose with due knowledge of his place, time and ability.

20) There is no austerity equal to a balanced mind, and there is no happiness equal to contentment; there is no disease like covetousness, and no virtue like mercy.

21) There is poison in the fang of the serpent, in the mouth of the fly and in the sting of a scorpion; but the wicked man is saturated with it.

22) We should not fret for what is past, nor should we be anxious about the future; men of discernment deal only with the present moment.

23) A good wife is one who serves her husband in the morning like a mother does, loves him in the day like a sister does and pleases him like a prostitute in the night.

24) Whores don't live in company of poor men, citizens never support a weak company and birds don't build nests on a tree that doesn't bear fruits.

Friday, December 18, 2009

How to Market for Entreprenuers

"Build a better mouse trap & world beats the path to your home" is an old metaphor & still many think of it as the truth, which is not, An Idea doesn't have much importance as execution in the real world( As the people who approached the venture capitalists know). So even if you make a better product then your competitor you need to market it effectively so as maximize your sales. Marketing is critical for organic growth of a business and its central role is in creating, communicating, capturing and sustaining value for an organization. Here are few Tips that i complied that will help the budding entrepreneurs. The tips which i am compiling came out of experience of being an entrepreneur since 1997.

1) Help the customer: Who ever your customer is, help him by telling/writing (Blogs) about the problems he faces, how they can be solved ( if possible the solution includes your products).

2) Building the trust: is foremost in any startup for longtime survival, so build it, let the initial few interactions be about the trusty things about the product & the company & see that the customer believes you, your product & your company. Don't outright ask them to buy your product.

3) Update your site & blog: Having a updates site about your company & your product gives a positive impression on the customer, If possiable, do include testimonials of satisfied customers & also if possiable any help( Complete Chronology) that you have went out of way to solve a particular problem of a customer ( Do include problem & solution).

4) Market Directly: Why spend lakhs of rupees, when you can reach out directly to your customer, just find out what does majority of your customers have in common, whether they attend a particular conference or a festival, try finding a pattern & use it by sponsoring that event. You will find your "Paisa"* to be effectively used. If you know where you customers live, you can also reach out to them personally and directly. Which would be a complete "Paisa vasool**".

* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paisa

5) Name your services: Giving a name to some particular service, makes it tangible. It’s much easier to understand and purchase something that looks like a product. Notice that even software downloads or e-books actually look like a tangible product so that people can have a sense of what they are purchasing. Turn your service into a product by giving it a name, describing your process as a specification and then charging a flat rate instead of by the hour. You’ll find that it’s easier to sell, easier to buy and more profitable for your business.

6) Using Mobile: Not just in India, but in the most of world, mobiles still dominate internet when it comes to reach out to the people. Globally twice as many people use text messaging than e-mail. Mobile Marketing Programs allow your customer to opt-in and request certain kinds of messages and updates from you, give updates about specific offers, new arrivals & also status of the current order. Do use it infrequently to wish your customers on there birthdays, anniversaries or on some specific festivals which generally makes the customers to buy ( i.e., Diwali, Christmas,..etc).

7) Word of mouth/reference system: Word of mouth references play a very important role in getting new customers, Hence, Stop treating referrals like a happy accident. Run a referral program that includes regular meetings with people who agree to enthusiastically refer you. Start by creating a referral guideline that outlines what sets your business apart, profiles your ideal customer and describes what they might say that should trigger a referral to you. Put your focus on attracting “Centers of Influence” and “trusted advisers” who will refer you to their clients and customers. It’s like having a free sales force!

8) 20-80 Rule : 80% of your Customers are satisfied by 20% of your effort, Identify such customers, who are happy with what you offer and refer you. Profile them in detail; what’s important to them, what are their 7 biggest frustrations? Outline in what ways your company gives them what’s important and eases their frustrations. Now go get more customers just like that.

This is my first blog on marketing, please do add tips/tricks that you have some experience with or worked with you.

Thanks in Advance.

Saturday, October 31, 2009

In Social Enterprise force yourself to be an entrepreneur first

A article by Peter http://posterous.com/people/36jwxsRutyQF in TED Fellows blog


As I sit at my desk in Guatemala reading the business plans of the finalists of our Guateverde competition (http://www.guateverde.com) I keep thinking about my start in social enterprise and all the mistakes I made in getting AIDG to the point where we will now invest a few million USD in local enterprises over the next five years. I also think about all the other social enterprises I have seen over the years that have closed down.

I am routinely heartbroken by seeing good small international programs close down, putting kids back on the street, ending that production of biodiesel, stopping the youth empowerment program, because the social entrepreneurs that started them lost focus of some of the basic fundamentals of managing an enterprise. It is easy to get swept up in the mission but don’t be a “buro” and have to watch the doors on your program close.

Talking to major donor early in my program he did not seem impressed with my metrics or organizational strategy. My quick repartee? "But you have to take into account I only started with $800 and a bag of tools" His reply "I will take that into consideration". Translation: “Honestly you were a well paid programmer and you started with only $800? You aren’t an entrepreneur, you are an idiot.”

Fortunately if you are starting a new program abroad you don’t need to be an idiot like I was. Here are ten “rules” of starting an international service organization that would have helped me if I had known them a few years ago, and maybe can help you. To anybody running an organization they may seem obvious but it is amazing how many early stage entrepreneurs ignore them while focussed on the mission of trying to just get the school built, the pollution reduced, the farm running, etc. With these rules maybe you can start an enterprise that is as much enterprise as it is social.

Rule number 1: Don’t start a new organization

There are literally millions of established organizations globally that are in need of support. Before you start something new ask yourself: “What can I do to help something that is already here become more effective?” There are several programs I know of now that if I had learned about them earlier and applied to a management position it could have likely saved me a few years in getting my program running.

Rule number 2: Clearly define what you do and stick with it

So in the face of massive unmet need there is always the temptation to run the feeding-housing-water-sanitation-ecotourism-renewable energy-child education-dolphin saving program. But unless you are say putting up a millennium village presenting this type of program to funders can be a tough sell. To draw an example from my experience at AIDG donors may not see the clear link between a program in say ecotourism and a program in say light industrial fabrication. Don't be a swiss army knife. Do one or two things well and be selective about program expansion.

Rule number 3: Clearly define your budgets and cash flow, and track your variance

Put down your shovel, or wrench, or blackboard and pull out an excel sheet (A great template from the for profit world is available here: http://caribbean.smetoolkit.org/caribbean/en/file/195?1194044785 ). Figure out what your budget is month by month, your cash flow and income, set targets and track the variances. If you are living month to month do everything you can to cut your burn rate to the bare essentials, and then build your cash reserves. It does nobody any good if your program closes because that grant you were expecting in January doesn’t show up till March. And without getting it all down you will never see that dry spell coming.

Rule Number 4: It costs more than you expect, get more than you need

Honestly don’t be afraid to ask for enough money to really have impact. If you have a well communicated business plan, have made the right connections, have the right board and advisors you have a better chance of making your impact by starting with enough resources to actually enact your mission at some scale instead of constantly being stuck dealing in trials.

Rule number 5: Get legal, and stay legal.

In developing countries this can sometimes mean months and even years in bureaucratic limbo. But you want to be formal from day one. This also might mean paying yourself according to US labor laws if you are a US charity, getting insurance, getting title to that truck you picked up at the border. Get it all in writing, your contracts, your grants, your projects, your partnerships, and keep those records. The sooner you are clean cut and can show all the proper documents the sooner you will attract capital.

Rule number 6: Pay yourself and your staff from the beginning

Everybody wants to volunteer for a good cause but many early stage Social Entrepreneurs volunteer for months or years without compensation or on base living stipends. I've seen more than a few programs shut down or almost shut down because the social entrepreneurs were so flat broke/in credit card debt they had no choice but to go back to work again in the states. The worst service you can provide a community is to start a program that is good and then force it to close suddenly because you put yourself at financial risk.

Rule number 7: Communicate openly with your staff and board, and have clear roles and responsibilities

It is important from the point of hire to be clear with people what their roles and responsibilities are, who is accountable, and who has the final say in decisions. I have seen an organization lose a million dollar grant because of conflict between staff, board and management about goals with no clear deferment to one party.

Rule number 8: Treat both constituents and donors as customers

Most NGOs when they are small lose track of their donors while they are wrapped up in providing good services for their constituents. It is an unfortunate donor as ATM mentality. With some large NGOs this switches and the donors tend to take priority. To be successful treat both donors and constituents as customers you want to keep happy. If you talk to both donors and constituents on a regular basis you have a good shot of creating an effective organization.

Rule Number 9: Play nice with others

Partnership and collaboration in the Non-profit world is always better than competition. In fact if you ever want to work with multilaterals it may be your only way in the door (many multilaterals use partnerships as an introduction mechanism for funding). Start early and figure out how to leverage the strengths and experiences of other more established groups instead of doing everything yourself.

And the final Rule: Don't be a non-profit.

Bogo light, Tom’s Shoes, SKS Microfinance, there are plenty of examples of organizations that can scale quickly in providing services to people because they are for profit entities. Investment can be easier to find than donation and making money with each client served is always more scalable than losing it. While sometimes, like the case with AIDG’s training services, there is a need that it would be difficult to establish a profit model around, there are plenty of social ills that can be met in a for profit model. See if your cause fits.

Sunday, July 26, 2009

Some sayings from Indian Soldiers

The author was just seeing TV show on NDTV featuring the occasion of 10 years of kargil war between India and Pakistan.

And, some soldier were talking really really inspiring things.

He fetched four sentences which he liked the most (these are not the exact ones as they spoke). Hope you will also feel the same.

Everybody has fear and conquering it is part of our reason to be here (in this world).
Everybody has fear including your enemy, so side which dares wins.
Soldier by himself never wants war.
Death does not have smell, it has effect. And, when you are killing enemies you have to expect you can also be effected. It's part of our job.

Source : http://fun-learn-share.blogspot.com/2009/07/10-years-of-kargil-war.html

Business with Chinese, Cares & Pitfalls

Americans looking for partners to do business, and they believe if they create a win-win situation, Chinese will do their job. They don't understand corruptions, bad practice are everywhere, and that's how a lot of people build their fortune. If Chinese have the control to make 80% of profit, they won't stick to 50%-50% or even smaller share.

People ask then we should not go to China? A lot of times we can't. Then what can we do, here is a few tips we gave to my friends:

1. You have to find your own guy, take care of him/her, make sure he/she is satisfied and on your side. If you need to pay more, pay more, make sure you win his/her heart.

2. Don't listen to what people say, only understanding the situation can help you make the right decision. Chinese don't show their intentions, lying is not good but not guilty in China.

3. When you hire top employees, personalities first, skills and experience second. At least you have to have your own guy even he is not best guy in terms of skills and experience. (Don't assume all Chinese are the same, people are born different in any country, you can find the right people if you try hard.)

4. Doing business in China, you are not looking for partners, you are looking for friends. Don't work with guy you don't know his/her personality and don't be blinded by surface. Chinese emphasize relationship and rely on people they know for years, it's inefficient, but they have a reason. Relationship is one of the best practices Chinese developed to overcome the cruel social reality. Lying is another.

5. Don't do JV unless you have to. When you have a choice to control your life, that's the best even it means you make less money. If you have to, make sure you find the right one. It's like a marriage, You need to know who are you married with. And understand that you are not married with company, you are married with people. It is people who make decisions. Americans like to do background check about the company, but they don't do background check of the person that is the major investor on Chinese side. Make sure you know him/her better than his/her mother does. It means you need spend more time and money, but it worth it when it compares to millions of dollars you invested and it is cost of doing business in China.

6. Build a corporate system that prevents people from having bad practice. Prepare for the worst scenario. If bank don't have security system, people will rob the bank everyday. Moral and law are not enough sometimes.

7. Dealing people in China, you have to win not only their brains but also their hearts. Read more about Chinese history, you will understand they have strong rules and believes once you win their hearts. They have their own rules and believes of how to be a man and how to do business. But it's different from foreigners.

Source::
http://www.linkedin.com/groupAnswers?viewQuestionAndAnswers=&gid=39836&discussionID=5223131&commentID=5160069&trk=NUS_DISC_Q_subject&goback=%2Ehom#commentID_5160069

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

How to Outsource Any Project to India

“It is vain to do with more what can be done with less.” - William of Occam

Please Note: This article promotes utilizing outsourcing as a tool to make your job easier, not to completely remove yourself from it. Outsourcing is often seen as a tool that companies can employ to reduce overhead. However, outsourcing can be used on a more personal level to make life easier.
Globalization and the Internet has made it possible for anyone to tap talented workers in emerging economies at a low cost. Why pay for a job in dollar figures what can be done remotely for rupees. Today, virtually all large companies outsource portions of their business development to other nations.

Thanks to the Internet, outsourcing is now available to the rest of us as well. I know of many startups and individuals, like myself, who have had considerable success outsourcing. I have integrated outsourcing as part of all ongoing projects - and recommend it to any individual or business that hasn’t done so yet. When done right, outsourcing will save significant amount of time, money and stress.

There are risks involved, however; micromanaging an incompetent employee living in an inverted timezone can be stressful. Or worse yet, there is a risk of getting stuck with an employee who stalls the project until it ends up costing more money than it was meant to save.

These issues, however, are not problems with outsourcing itself, but rather with the orthodox approach used to manage an outsourced project. The tips suggested in the following paragraphs will help you develop an outsourcing strategy to get quality work done for less.

10 Tips on Outsourcing Online:

1. Check Employee’s Background

Choose someone with a high credibility and at least a dozen projects completed on the site. Websites such as, Elance, RentACoder, and ODesk have expert rating tests service providers can take to prove their credibility.

2. Start with a small project

Unless you have worked with a coder before, start with a small project. Remember, you cannot outsource passion. Your employees don’t share the same enthusiasm as you do for your project. So communicate expectations and divide the work into small chunks so that they may stay motivated and demand less micro-managing.

When hiring, prefer workers who ask questions to those who do not. Questions show they are interested and already thinking of your needs. Those who do not ask usually end up chucking half baked work at you; ‘guessing’ instead of ‘knowing’ what you need without really caring.

3. Don’t let the lowest bid intimidate you

Plan your project and work out your priorities. While it is great to negotiate costs, when you are finally hiring, be sure you are hiring the right person for the job. Do not let a low bid lure you into hiring.

4. Claim Intellectual Property

Make sure the project contract includes the ownership clause that tells the employee that you own complete rights to the work once it is paid for. RentACoder and Elance have a default clause written into the contract. This will avoid potential copyright complications later on.

5. Provide the big picture

It is your job to share the project’s vision. If you are able to clearly communicate the project goals things would go far smoother than they would if you were directing a project from the seat of your pants.

6. Set a schedule for status reports

With preset status reports, you can keep track of the project’s progress and it is then easier to keep the outsourced employee motivated. Time saved for them is time and money saved for you as well.

7. Clearly define what constitutes completed work

Test and retest the deliverables before you finally pay the employee for the work. When possible, work out a support clause with the coder for help after completion of the project.

8. Follow the rules

It might seem easier to just chat with the coders you hire and get your point across but sites like RentACoder.com insist you correspond everything you agreed upon through your project thread. If your correspondence is not in the arbitrating website’s record then do not expect them to take your word for what was agreed.

9. Time zones can make or break your sleep

When choosing a worker, it is important to keep the time zones in mind. Make sure there will be times when you can communicate with the coder in real time if necessary. Prefer someone from the same time zone as yourself (for North Americans, hiring someone from South America makes good sense).

10. Prefer freelance workers over outsource firms

Freelance workers are better motivated since they are working for themselves, and they are not top heavy as most Indian outsourcing firms turn out to be. Outsourcing firms will bid for projects their teams are incapable of finishing; many will brute force their way into finding a project by spamming potential employers with irrelevant samples of work.

Freelancing coders on the other hand are more likely to only take up work they can complete; plus, they remove the non-technical middle man.

Conclusion

I have outsourced everything, from copy writing and marketing to software development and graphic designing. The research material for this article, for instance, was compiled for by my virtual assistant. Surprised? Don’t be. I would be surprised if the likes of Timothy Ferriss wrote the entire book, The 4-Hour Workweek, without the help of an outsourced editor.

If you have a great idea, don’t let your lack of skills, or even time, stop you from executing it. Yes, outsourcing can be challenging, but the benefits far outweigh the potential risks once you know how to use it to your advantage.

Notes:

* Popular websites for outsourcing include, RentACoder, oDesk, E-Lance, LivePerson and GetAFreelancer, YourManInIndia. I personally recommend RentACoder.com for its cheap, but disciplined labor force.

Source : http://jawadonweb.com/?page_id=976

How Porsche hacked the financial system and made a killing

Adolf Merckle, one of the world’s richest men, committed suicide yesterday by throwing himself under a train, Bloomberg reports. Financial difficulties, and particularly great losses he suffered on Volkswagen stock, are being cited as the key reason he ended his life:

[Merckle's company] VEM was caught in a so-called short squeeze after betting Wolfsburg, Germany-based Volkswagen’s stock would fall. Merckle lost at least 500 million euros on the bets on VW stock, people familiar said on Nov. 18. VEM lost “low three-digit million euros” on VW stock, the company said in November.

A “short squeeze” sounds inconspicuous enough; you wouldn’t tell it by Bloomberg’s language, but Merckle’s Volkswagen bet lost out to one of the most masterful hacks of the financial system in history.

For those of us who don’t live and breathe finance, this is that story.

● ● ●
In 1931, Austro-Hungarian engineer Ferdinand Porsche started a German company in his own name. It offered car design consulting services, and was not a car manufacturer itself until it produced the Type 64 in 1939. But things got interesting for Porsche long before then.

In 1933, he was approached by none other than Adolf Hitler, who commissioned a car designed for the German masses. Porsche accepted, and the result was the iconic Beetle, manufactured under the Volkswagen (lit. “people’s car”) brand. Today, Porsche’s company is one of the world’s premier luxury car brands, while Volkswagen (VW) is itself the world’s third-largest auto maker after General Motors and Toyota.

Three years ago, Volkswagen found itself fearing a foreign takeover. Porsche, the company, decided to step in and start buying VW stock ostensibly to protect the landmark brand, widely fueling market expectations that it would eventually buy Volkswagen outright. Of course, this isn’t quite what came to pass.

For three years, Porsche kept accumulating VW stock without telling anyone how much it owned. Every time it purchased more, the amount of free-floating VW stock would decrease, driving the stock price up slightly; your basic supply and demand at work. Eventually the share price became high enough that, to outside observers, it wouldn’t have made any sense for Porsche to buy Volkswagen. It would simply have cost too much.

To explain what happened next, I’m going to first tell you about a financial maneuver called shorting.

● ● ●
At any given point, only a certain amount of a publicly traded company’s stock is floating freely in the market. The rest is held in various portfolios, funds, and investment vehicles. Now, everyone’s familiar with the basic idea behind the stock market: you buy stock when it costs little, and you sell it when it costs a lot, profiting on the difference.

But that assumes a company’s value is going to increase. What if, instead of betting a company will go up, you want to make money betting the company will go down? You can — by selling stock you don’t own.

Say you borrow a certain amount of stock from someone who already owns it. You pay a fixed fee for borrowing the stock, and you sign a contract saying you will return exactly the same amount of stock you took after some amount of time. So, you might borrow a thousand shares of Apple stock from me (I don’t actually own any, but play along), pay me $100 for the privilege, and sign an obligation to return my stock in 3 months. At the time, Apple stock is worth $10 per share.

After you borrow the stock, you immediately sell it. At $10 a share, you get $10,000. Two and a half months later, another rumor about Steve Jobs’ health sends AAPL crashing to only $6 per share for a few hours, so you buy a thousand shares, costing you $6,000. You give me back those shares. Because you successfully bet the company would go down in value, you earned $4,000 minus the borrowing fee. This is called short-selling or shorting the stock, and the downside is obvious: if your bet was wrong, you would have lost money buying back the shares that you have to return to your lender.

● ● ●
Now things get kinky.

When Volkswagen’s share price exceeded the point where it made sense for Porsche to buy the company, a number of hedge funds realized that Volkswagen shares have nowhere to go but down. With Porsche out of the picture, there was simply no reason for VW to keep going up, and the funds were willing to bet on it. So they shorted huge amounts of VW stock, borrowing it from existing owners and selling it into circulation, waiting for the price drop they considered inevitable.

Porsche anticipated exactly this situation and promptly bought up much of these borrowed VW shares that the funds were selling. Do you see where this is going? Analysts did. According to The Economist, Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley warned clients not to play “billionaire’s poker” against Porsche. Porsche denied any foul play, saying it wasn’t doing anything unusual.

But then, last October 26th, they stepped forward and bared their portfolio: through a combination of stock and options, they owned 75% of Volkswagen, which is almost all the company’s circulating stock. (The remainder is tied up in funds that cannot easily release it.)

To put it mildly, the numbers scared the living hell out of the hedge funds: if they didn’t immediately buy back the Volkswagen stock they were shorting, there might not be any left to buy later, and it isn’t their stock — they have to return it to someone. If their only option is thus to buy the VW stock from Porsche, then the miracle of supply and demand will hit again, and Porsche can ask for whatever price it wants per VW share — twenty times their value, a hundred times their value — because there’s no other place to buy. They’re the only game in town.

And that, my friends, is called a short squeeze.

● ● ●
Porsche’s ownership disclosure sent the hedge funds on such a flurry of purchases for any Volkswagen stock still in circulation that the VW share price jumped from below €200 to over €1000 at one point on October 28th, making Volkswagen for a brief time the world’s most valuable company by market cap.

On paper, Porsche made between €30-40 billion in the affair. Once all is said and done, the actual profit is closer to some €6-12 billion. To put those numbers in perspective, Porsche’s revenue for the whole year of 2006 was a bit over €7 billion.

Porsche’s move took three years of careful maneuvering. It was darkly brilliant, a wealth transfer ingeniously conceived like few we’ve ever seen. Betting the right way, Porsche roiled the financial markets and took the hedge funds for a fortune.

Betting the wrong way, Adolf Merckle took his life.